Canada witnessed a slight decrease in greenhouse gas emissions last year, despite economic and population growth, indicating the effectiveness of climate policies, according to a recent analysis. The Canadian Climate Institute’s annual emissions report revealed a 0.8% reduction in emissions in 2023, totaling 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Dave Sawyer, a principal environmental economist at the organization, described the findings as showing “modest progress” in lowering greenhouse gas emissions and highlighted the positive impact of policy implementation. The most significant emission reductions were observed in the electricity sector, which transitioned from coal to less emissions-intensive fuels like natural gas, and the building sector.
However, these reductions were counteracted by increased emissions from the oil and gas sector and higher air travel following the pandemic. Emissions from oil and gas continued their upward trend, rising by 1% or 2.2 megatonnes from the previous year, now constituting 31% of Canada’s total emissions.
Sawyer commended the remarkable progress in the electricity sector, with emissions dropping by 62% compared to 2005 levels due to policies at federal, provincial, and territorial levels driving the shift from coal to gas. He also noted the increasing adoption of battery storage facilitating the integration of more wind and solar energy into the grid.
Regarding buildings, emission reductions were attributed to upgrades such as heat pumps and warmer winter temperatures, alongside substantial uptake of federal and provincial grants for retrofitting. Sawyer emphasized the natural progression towards more energy-efficient buildings through upgrades and new construction practices.
The report did not provide clarity on the effectiveness of the carbon tax in reducing emissions, which has been a topic of ongoing debate in Canadian politics. An earlier analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute projected that carbon pricing, particularly the industrial version, could lead to a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030.
Janetta McKenzie from the Pembina Institute highlighted that while certain sectors of the Canadian economy have seen reductions in emissions, the surge in the oil and gas industry has offset these gains. Record-high production levels in 2023 and forecasts for continued growth pose challenges to emission reduction efforts.
McKenzie suggested various solutions for the oil and gas sector, including further reducing methane emissions and targeted use of carbon capture and storage technology. She emphasized the need for climate policies that leverage both emissions reduction and economic considerations to effectively address environmental challenges.
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault hinted at forthcoming measures to reduce emissions, including draft regulations for an oil and gas emissions cap and clean electricity regulations, aiming to further enhance Canada’s environmental initiatives.