Years of advancements in reducing Canada’s carbon emissions have hit a roadblock, with the prospect of future progress appearing uncertain, as per an early 2024 emissions projection from the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI).
The renowned climate policy research organization, known for releasing its forecasts ahead of the government, has indicated that Canada is unlikely to achieve its 2030 emissions goal for the first time. The rise in emissions from the oil and gas sector, particularly the oilsands, has negated any reductions in other areas like transportation and buildings.
The CCI’s estimate places 2024 emissions at 694.3 megatonnes of carbon dioxide, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure is currently 8.5% lower than 2005 levels, far below the target of reaching a 40 to 45% reduction from those levels by 2030.
Dave Sawyer, the principal economist at CCI, emphasized the immense challenge of reducing emissions by 40 megatonnes of carbon dioxide annually to meet the targets, citing the lack of precedent and policy to drive such significant reductions.
The gap highlighted by the report serves as a stark warning, given the institute’s influential role in shaping governmental and private sector climate actions. Sawyer underlined that while addressing climate change is not a pass-or-fail scenario, it necessitates a concerted effort to realign climate strategies.
Addressing the concerning outlook, Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin affirmed the government’s commitment to combating climate change, emphasizing the moral obligation to secure a sustainable future.
The prognosis for meeting climate goals has dimmed due to recent policy reversals by the new Mark Carney administration, which has rolled back key climate initiatives amidst concerns about affordability and industry competitiveness. Actions such as repealing the consumer carbon tax and pausing the electric vehicle sales mandate have drawn criticism. Talks with Alberta regarding oil and gas policies, including potentially revising the emissions cap, further compound the challenges ahead.
The report points to 2025 as a pivotal year for Canada’s climate efforts, urging enhanced government interventions to steer the country back on track towards its 2030 targets. Dabrusin hinted at an upcoming climate competitiveness strategy, with a focus on achieving results through investments rather than restrictions.
Sawyer emphasized the crucial role of provinces in driving emission reductions, particularly in high-emitting sectors, stressing the importance of upholding climate policies to mitigate environmental risks and economic repercussions.
As wildfires and extreme weather events become more prevalent, the urgency of meeting emission targets to safeguard communities and the economy becomes increasingly apparent. The necessity of aligning policies with environmental objectives to combat climate change remains paramount.