Eight decades after the initial atomic bombings, experts and survivors caution that the tragedies of Hiroshima and Nagasaki could resurface in today’s nuclear landscape amid escalating nuclear arms competition.
Joseph Cirincione, a long-time national security analyst focusing on nuclear non-proliferation, noted a growing consensus among experts that the likelihood of nuclear weapon deployment is on the rise. He highlighted a resurgence of factors driving the arms race similar to those seen in the 1950s and 1960s, with a lack of public pressure to counter these trends.
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists recently adjusted the Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, reflecting imminent global peril. This update considered various factors, including climate change, AI advancements, conflicts in the Middle East, and the potential for nuclear escalation in Russia’s actions towards Ukraine.
Cirincione emphasized that all nine nuclear-armed countries are currently enhancing their arsenals or delivery systems, with some nations like France contemplating extending their nuclear protection to other EU states. Additionally, countries such as South Korea are exploring the possibility of developing their nuclear capabilities due to perceived uncertainties in relying on external defense guarantees.
In a recent incident, Israel and the U.S. targeted Iranian facilities, leading to a significant conflict. Subsequently, former U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the relocation of two nuclear submarines in response to provocative statements from ex-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Despite reductions in nuclear arsenals over the past four decades, Cirincione pointed out a lack of public pressure for further disarmament efforts. He expressed concerns that complacency regarding disarmament trends, coupled with shifting public focus towards issues like climate change, might necessitate a catastrophic event to reignite disarmament advocacy.
Setsuko Thurlow, a survivor of the Hiroshima bombing who has been an anti-nuclear advocate for decades, shared her experiences and worries about the growing nuclear threat. She stressed the importance of Canada taking a stronger stance against nuclear proliferation to uphold its global reputation as a peace-promoting nation.
Cirincione suggested merging disarmament advocacy with other social movements as a strategy to revive global efforts against nuclear weapons. He highlighted the exorbitant global expenditure on nuclear armaments as a potential funding source for pressing human needs such as healthcare and education.