In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, but it has been relatively calm so far. However, experts warn that this quiet period may not last much longer, urging people to stay prepared.
Up to this point, there have been four named storms – Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. Most of these storms were short-lived tropical storms. Dexter, the latest storm, formed on August 4 and is currently located in the North Atlantic. Having four named storms is slightly above the average of 3.2 storms for this time of the year.
Despite the seemingly quiet season, Jennifer Collins, a geosciences professor at the University of South Florida, points out that the perspective of quietness is relative. She explains that the early start of several storms in recent years may be influencing this perception. Additionally, the occurrence of short-lived storms contributes to the appearance of inactivity.
Tropical storm Barry, although short-lived, had a significant impact on weather patterns in Texas, resulting in widespread flooding and the unfortunate loss of at least 135 lives. Chris Fogarty from the Canadian Hurricane Centre emphasizes that the number of storms alone does not accurately reflect the season’s activity. He notes that numerous weak storms may not signify active activity.
While the Atlantic has been relatively calm, the Pacific Ocean has been notably active, with eight named storms, four of which intensified into hurricanes. Collins explains that historically, low activity in the Atlantic often correlates with increased activity in the northeast Pacific, particularly towards Hawaii.
Looking ahead, history shows that a quiet start to the hurricane season does not guarantee a quiet season overall. The potential for increased storm activity remains, with ongoing monitoring of tropical storm Dexter and the identification of two other areas with potential development. The necessary ingredients for hurricanes, including moist air, warm water, and favorable upper-level winds, have not all been present, delaying the season’s full activity.
NOAA’s initial forecast predicted between 13 to 19 named storms, with a percentage of them becoming hurricanes. The agency plans to provide an updated forecast on August 7. Despite the current calm, experts emphasize the importance of remaining vigilant, particularly during the peak months of August and September. Rapid intensification of hurricanes poses a significant threat, necessitating continued preparedness and awareness among the population.