Nigel Farage is poised to potentially become the next Prime Minister, according to recent alarming polling data. A detailed analysis conducted by YouGov, based on surveys from 13,000 individuals, indicates that Farage’s Reform UK party could secure 311 seats in the House of Commons if an election were held presently. While this would fall slightly short of a majority, it would effectively block any other party from taking the helm of the country.
Reform UK, which currently holds five parliamentary seats, is forecasted to make significant gains. The polling results project a sharp decline for the Labour party, with an estimated win of only 144 out of the 650 total seats, down from 411 in the previous election. The Liberal Democrats are anticipated to secure 78 seats, while the Conservative party is expected to suffer substantial losses.
According to the polls, Kemi Badenoch’s party would secure 45 seats, while the SNP is projected to win 37 seats and the Greens to attain seven seats. This electoral scenario would mark Labour’s weakest performance in the Commons since 1931, surpassing even the disappointing outcome in the 2019 general election under Jeremy Corbyn, where Labour secured 202 seats.
Notable figures from the Labour party, including Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy, and Angela Rayner, could face defeat. The Conservative party is also anticipated to experience significant losses, with around 60% of their frontbench predicted to be ousted, including prominent members like Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, and Sir Mel Stride.
If these predictions hold true, it would signify the worst electoral result in the Tory party’s history. These projections come just days before Keir Starmer’s appearance at the Labour party’s annual conference in Liverpool, where he will need to address recent setbacks and present a compelling vision to revitalize the party. Criticism from Andy Burnham is expected to weigh heavily on the Prime Minister’s mind.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham recently criticized Starmer’s team, alleging a “climate of fear” within the Labour party and advocating for substantial changes to reverse the current trajectory. In an interview with The Telegraph, Burnham highlighted an “existential” threat to the Labour party, prompting speculation that he may be considering a return to Parliament to challenge Starmer for the position of Prime Minister.