The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an active Atlantic hurricane season. The season, spanning from June 1 to Nov. 30 annually, has a 60% chance of being above-normal, a 30% chance of being near-normal, and a 10% chance of being below-normal, as per the federal climate and weather agency. NOAA anticipates 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 evolving into hurricanes, and among these, three to five could be major hurricanes (Category 3 to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), with a 70% confidence level in these projections.
Comparing to the prior year’s forecast of 18 to 25 named storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes, the actual count saw 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Laura Grimm, acting NOAA administrator, mentioned that the 2024 hurricane season outlook was accurate. In 2024, three storms impacted Canada. Hurricane Beryl remnants caused a fatality in Wolfville, N.S., due to flash floods and spawned two tornadoes near London, Ont. Hurricane Debby, the most severe, led to nearly $2.5 billion in insured damages in Quebec, becoming the costliest severe weather event in the province’s history. The remnants of Hurricane Ernesto also made landfall in Newfoundland with minimal impacts.
The Atlantic Ocean has been unusually warm since 2023, attributed to global warming. Despite this warmth not directly affecting storm frequency, it has contributed to increased rainfall due to heightened atmospheric moisture content. The warmer temperatures have potentially fueled rapid intensification, witnessed with Hurricane Otis in 2023, strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours, causing significant destruction in Acapulco, Mexico. NOAA has noted improved forecasting accuracy regarding rapid intensification.
Addressing concerns about staffing cuts, Grimm assured that NOAA is fully equipped to handle weather prediction and safeguard lives and property. Approximately 10% of NOAA’s workforce has been trimmed. The emphasis of the press conference was on hurricane preparedness, urging early readiness even before hurricanes develop. Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, emphasized the importance of preparation regardless of location, highlighting the unpredictability of storm severity.
Graham reiterated the need for readiness, emphasizing that every hurricane, regardless of its category, poses a significant threat. He urged the public to gather supplies and create emergency kits promptly, underlining the importance of being prepared for an anticipated active hurricane season.