The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has pointed to severe winter conditions as a contributing factor to decreased housing sales in January. CREA’s latest data indicates a 5.8% decline in national housing sales compared to the previous month. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist, highlighted the impact of the harsh weather in central and southwestern Ontario, where a major storm hit in late January, hindering housing transactions.
Joe Ferrante, a real estate agent in the Hamilton area, acknowledged that the cold and stormy weather likely deterred buyers from attending house showings last month. However, he noted that the sluggish market trend from late 2025 persisted into January. Despite the subdued performance in January, CREA remains optimistic about its 2026 forecast, with Cathcart emphasizing the expectation for market improvement unless faced with significant weather disruptions.
As of the end of January, Canada had approximately 4.9 months of housing inventory available for sale, aligning closely with the long-term average of five months. This inventory ratio is a key indicator for market balance, with lower ratios indicating a sellers’ market and higher ratios signaling a buyers’ market.
Cathcart mentioned that while some buyers may be waiting for potential interest rate cuts, there is currently no indication of imminent rate adjustments. The Bank of Canada had lowered its key interest rate to 2.25% at the end of October but has maintained this rate since then.
Looking ahead, CREA anticipates a modest 2.8% increase in the national average home price for 2026, based on the national composite MLS home price index. Regional variations were noted, with price declines in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario offsetting gains in other provinces. Affordability remains a challenge for first-time buyers, given the prevailing price levels and mortgage rate options.